Saturday, January 13, 2007

good news on a friday

i've spent part of this evening reading some of this lengthy report on free and open source software usage in european government. it's a fascinating read in many ways and has several useful insights ranging from usage stats to world demographics of developers to economic impacts to the difficulties inherent in measuring some of these things.

if you're at all interested in such topics, this paper is a good read; even though it's over 287 pages long it's rather readable with good amounts of whitespace and graphs. (sidenote: it's funny how papers for politicians and marketroids are so easy to read while academic papers tend to be these multi-columned, tiny font monsters.)

i just have to share some of the money shots in the paper regarding usage of free software on the desktop in european government. now, we've been getting hit harder and harder by the press for not making numerical progress in the market. (which i've always taken to mean we're succeeding; i mean, if we aren't, why care to spend breath and column inches on us?)

i've pointed out numerous times that our growth is not going to be even across all demographics and that this is completely expected and not a sign of failure. no growth anywhere would be failure; moderate growth in one or two places would be disappointing. lackluster results amongst certain groups while doing well with others, however, would just mean we have more work to do. remember, on the desktop we're the late comers to the game.

so that said, how are we doing in government? they note on page 20 that in Sweden, Britain and Germany use ranges from 3.4-13.7% in small companies and 2-6.5% in large companies. oh look, we're doing better in smaller firms. again, no surprise. many of us have been saying that's the case for some time all while too many continue to obsess over the "enterprise" when that is not where our bread and butter tends to be, by a factor of 2. still, even 6.5% penetration is pretty good.

on the next page there is a graph showing that some 16% of respondents in an end user survey done in western europe had "significant live use" of open source personal productivity software, with another 7% or so (the graph is a bit hard to read) having "some live deployments" and another 4-5% having "limited live deployments". those are numbers that stack up quickly.

and there there is this graph on page 29 showing the use of foss in european governments as measured in a survey of over 900 such bodies:



kde is used in 10.2% of these places; heck, we're tied with perl for usage. if you add on gnome's 5.5% we end up with a nice foray into the teens for the free software desktop. firefox is doing even better having topped 25%.

and that's where my heart fluttered a bit. because up until this point i was telling myself, "these are places that use kde. these may not be reflective of market share since they may reflect mixed environments." but then i looked at the firefox numbers later on as measured by actual web usage and there it was: the numbers lined up.

the sceptic in me argue that perhaps firefox is more apt to be deployed throughout a governmental department and so the numbers line up, but even then how much could that skew things given the other numbers? it feels pretty good.

and so this was a very nice way to end the week: news of a market where we are making real strides. they even seem to be rather proud of the project, mentioning kde a few times as a sign of innovation and experience in this arena for the european market. even though i personally hail from canuckistan, it still warms my heart =)

i look forward 5 years and ponder what we'll think about these numbers then. i'm betting that we'll chuckle and go "remember when 10% of europe's governments was reason for cheer? ooh, those were the innocent days weren't they."

p.s. today is also the third anniversary (+1 day) of being pronounced dead by eric raymond on an internet radio show. what a maroon =)

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Eric Rayomond has this exponential ability to put his foot in his mouth with an astonishing frequency.

Luckily, just about nobody seems to take him too seriously now, although I do think his earlier writings were helpful.

Real organic leaders are developing in small numbers in the free software community. Leaders who do not need to be quoted on newspapers or to claim bigger roles that they really have. Just lots of people doing their job, directing their energies as best they can with the knowledge and trust that many people, for instance, the KDE project, work in this fashion too.

A proud KDE user and administrator.

segedunum said...

today is also the third anniversary (+1 day) of being pronounced dead by eric raymond on an internet radio show. what a maroon =)

Wow. Yer, I listened to that at the time (The Linux Show, wasn't it?) and found it rather funny.

The premise of it, for those that don't know, was that Novell had taken over Suse, Novell was going all Ximian, Suse was going to go all Gnome therefore the entire world was going to go Gnome, Suse developers would no longer be working on KDE so KDE's development would stall (as if Suse single handedly developed KDE), and KDE would then disappear off the face of the Earth (making Eric Raymond secretly happy apparently).

What has really happened is that Novell's internal politics have struck again and they've tried to go Gnome for reasons that are best known to them, Suse people still work on KDE, Suse and Novell's customers still install KDE regardless, KDE's development seems to have accelerated and it hasn't disappeared. I know of no Suse user who has looked at SLES9 and then SLES10 and then said "Oh my God, what the hell happened?", just as it would be pointless to change the way that Red Hat worked.

Meanwhile, Novell has dug a hole even deeper for itself, they've managed to cheese off their existing Netware customers, who are paying for all this open source galavanting, even more and they're simply not the great white desktop Linux company that was going to take over the world, as people like ESR clearly and naively thought. The enterprise desktop Linux thing couldn't have been more of a disaster, because that's just not where things are happening.

Taking into account ESR's ramblings, and more importantly, the issues surrounding those ramblings, it was impossible to be more wrong or to have less of a clue. No shock there then.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for that bit of history, segendum - I was wondering about what Aaron was referring to :)

And, childish though it may be, I think that this strip says everything that need be said about ESR:

http://geekz.co.uk/lovesraymond/archive/show-them-the-code